The Power of Ignorance

This is my son's first year in baseball.  The league he's playing in is associated with the city and is designed to prepare him for playing baseball in a school.  The kids are learning and having fun, but - as often is the case - some parents take things a bit more seriously.

A few games ago, the opposing team had a runner on second.  There was a ground ball, so the runner on second base took off for third.  When he was about ten feet away from the base, our third basemen stepped right in his path, blocking him from getting to third.  The umpire missed it and called the runner out when the ball finally made it to third base.  The opposing team's coach kept saying - correctly - the third basemen cannot block the runner's path.  A big discussion started among the coaches about what happened.  A parent a few seats away from me went into a tirade.  She began screaming at the other team's coach, "This is baseball!"  It was obvious she had no idea what she was talking about.  She was ignorant of the rules, but passionately felt the runner should be out, and was confidently obnoxious in expressing her conclusions.  For the informed, we were embarrassed for her.

Betrand Russell said, "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."

Some people haven't had the experience of being an expert in an area and then receive obstinate criticism from a novice.

Yesterday, Tiger Woods made a very impressive chip on the 16th hole in the Memorial Tournament (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYLNLdHz_A8).  Jack Nicklaus raved, "It's the most gutsy shot that I've ever seen."  He continued later, "Under the circumstances, I don't think I've ever seen a better shot."  A non-golfer may watch that shot and think Nicklaus is ridiculous or at the least being overly dramatic.  The shot was only a handful of yards away and went in the hole...big deal.  It's when a person becomes educated regarding the details that they begin to have some appreciation regarding Jack's statement: the way the ball was sitting in the grass, the direction the grass was facing, the slant of the green, the wind, the impact of a full stroke, the pressure of the situation, etc.  Even when a novice learns of these things, his lack of experience may still leave him not nearly as convinced as the expert who understands how this mix of circumstances impacts the situation.  But a non-golfer seasoned with humility might at least be able to confess, "My ignorance leaves me unimpressed, but since the experts are so thrilled, I'm almost certainly missing the significance."  And if they're interested, they may begin to ask questions to try to understand the topic a bit better.

As an expert No-limit Hold'em player, I've often had the experience of a casual poker player instructing me on how a hand should have been played.  As they begin to justify their thinking, I realize they don't even know how to begin thinking about the game.  They don't even know what they don't know.  Ignorance is powerful.

But why are the intelligent often full of doubt?  It's because they realize the complications involved and it drives them to uncertainty - or at least an appreciation of other experts in the field who may disagree with them.

A few weeks ago, I was reading about a philosopher from the 1800s, Auguste Comte.  He was trying to think of an example of knowledge that would always be hidden.  He decided the composition of the distant stars and planet would be a good example.  One hundred years later, the scientific community using the tool of astronomical spectroscopy would look back on his statement as another example of the power of the position of ignorance.  Science had discovered a method Auguste couldn't have even imagined.  Sometimes we lack the knowledge to even begin imagining a way we may gain knowledge.

To me, the power of ignorance highlights the absurdity of a permanent agnosticism on any topic.  In other words, a statement like "We'll never be able to know that" may always be arguing from ignorance.